Every decision we take is a bet. At the moment of choosing, we always feel we’re taking the “right” decision because we’re going with the information and the beliefs we have right then. The problem is we forget that we never have all the information. Some facts literally don’t exist yet, some are hidden, and some are just not accessible to us. And the second problem is our beliefs. We trust things just because they sound right or we’ve heard them enough times, like the classic nonsense idea that “humans use 10 percent of their brain.”
To understand this clearly: chess gives you full information. Every piece is visible. Every possible move is knowable. If you lose, you can trace exactly what went wrong. Life doesn’t work like that. Most of the important stuff in life sits behind a curtain. Financial shocks, health issues, relationship problems, random events. We can label all of this “luck” because these are the unknown incidents that can hit us any time.
So we make decisions using limited information. Maybe more information exists somewhere, but we don’t have it. We grab whatever we can, add the beliefs we already hold, and place a bet. That’s all a decision is. And most of our bets are basically choices between our future versions. We pick one version of our future self and reject the others.
The biggest trap is being 100 percent sure about anything. Smart people especially fall for this. They over-justify, cherry-pick data, rationalize their choice, and silence every voice that might say “hey, you might be wrong.” This creates big problems later. The way out is thinking in probabilities. Meaning: you allow both possibilities. You don’t deny the low-probability outcome. You stay aware that it could happen. Over the long term, if your decisions are based on good probabilities, your results trend positive. Your business, your life, everything improves.
A funny thing happens when someone asks “wanna bet?” Suddenly your brain wakes up. You start rechecking your information, doubting your overconfidence, and actually thinking.
Why judging decisions from results messes with you
It’s extremely hard to look back at an outcome and figure out what really went right or wrong. This is because we have self-serving bias. If we win, we say it was 100 percent skill. If we fail, we blame 100 percent luck. And when others win, we say they had luck or favoritism. If others fail, we say they’re dumb.
Real life doesn’t work like that. Every outcome is a mix of skill and luck.
So shift your mindset:
If you win: What part was my skill and where did luck help me?
If you fail: What part was controllable? What did I miss? What can I improve next time? And where did luck hit me?
Do the same for other people too. Average people learn only from their own mistakes and successes. Great people learn from everyone’s.
Whenever you explain something or take a decision, never be fully certain. Respect the role of luck. Respect the uncertainty. Think in probabilities, not absolutes. The more you practice this, the better your long-term track record becomes. In the end, life is basically a long series of decisions. Stack good ones and you win the long game.
The Role of Group Dissent
Humans are built to protect their ego, not seek truth. We can’t question our own thinking as accurately as someone else can. A good group challenges you in ways you can’t challenge yourself. That’s why we need people around us who disagree, who push, who point out blind spots.
Value the people who question you. They show you viewpoints you literally can’t see. Build a group that aims for truth, not comfort. Make decisions as if you will have to explain them to that group later.
Avoid agreeable groups. They create echo chambers. Everyone believes the same thing and keeps boosting each other’s ego. Groups that respectfully question each other produce better decisions than groups that blindly agree.
The world’s best decisions come from dissent and debate, not from everyone nodding like bobbleheads.
How to form a truth-seeking group: The CUDOS Framework
C = Communism (Share everything)
You must share all the information with your group. Every small detail. Only then can they evaluate your decisions correctly. Most people hide the parts that make them look dumb or guilty. But that ruins the whole purpose. Tell them everything about how you thought and why you decided what you decided.
U = Universalism (Judge ideas, not people)
We unconsciously think good people give good ideas and bad people give bad ideas. But “good” and “bad” are usually just our personal feelings. Universalism means evaluating ideas without caring who they came from. If the same idea came from someone else, would I still value it?
D = Disinterestedness (Protect against conflicts of interest)
Share the decision process, not the result. When people hear the outcome first, they automatically justify the outcome. Conflict of interest happens when your belief affects how you interpret information. Your brain bends data to match what you already believe. So share the process first. Let them judge it neutrally.
OS = Organized Skepticism (Question well)
When questioning someone, avoid instantly shutting them down with “but.” It triggers defensiveness. Instead, agree and then add your perspective in a softer way. And keep this method inside the group only. Most people can’t handle truth-seeking communication. If you speak this directly to your family, your partner, or a crush, they’ll mostly take it personally.
Better Decisions: Bring Past You and Future You into the room
To level up your decisions, involve your past and future self. Ask:
Would my future self regret this choice? If I had done this ten months earlier, would I be happier today?
These two questions force you to think beyond the present moment and make decisions that survive time.